What Really Predicts Success?

Last week, I had one of those full-circle moments. I walked through the halls of my children's school not as a parent, but as a professional speaker. invited to share Positive Psychology insights with fellow parents.

That evening at the International School Utrecht’s Parent Evening, I had the privilege of speaking about Positive Psychology for parents. We covered several topics that evening, from parental wellbeing and time management to navigating emotions and resilience.

But if there is one idea I hope parents took home with them, it's this:

Maybe we need to stop focusing so much on grades and start focusing more on joy.

Now, before anyone accuses me of encouraging children to abandon school and spend their days playing video games, let me explain.

Many of us grew up with a simple formula: good grades lead to a good university, a good job, and ultimately a successful life.

At least that's the story I grew up with.

But one the most interesting findings I shared that evening was that the evidence doesn't fully support this assumption.

In the book Punished by Rewards, educator and researcher Alfie Kohn reviews studies examining the relationship between grades and various measures of success and wellbeing. What researchers found was surprising.

The correlation between high school GPA and wellbeing was actually negative. In other words, as grades went up, wellbeing tended to go slightly down. Similar patterns were found for self-esteem and optimism.

The findings become even more interesting when we look at future earnings. While grades had a small relationship with starting salary, that relationship was surprisingly weak and almost disappeared within just a few years after graduation.

In other words, the data suggests that grades are not a particularly strong predictor of either long-term wellbeing or long-term success. And it raises an important question: if grades aren't the strongest predictor of a successful and fulfilling life, what is?

One answer comes from the work of happiness researcher Ed Diener. He asked a simple but fascinating question: Can we predict anything about a person's future career success from how cheerful they are today?

To find out, he followed college students over a nine-year period. What they found was striking - The students who reported the highest levels of positive emotion at 18 were more likely to be employed, more likely to enjoy their work, and were earning significantly more money than their less cheerful peers.

Most of us assume the relationship works the other way around. We think that once we're successful, we'll be happier. But Diener's findings suggest that happiness may actually help create success.

Why?

Because happier people tend to bring different qualities into their work and lives. They are generally more optimistic, more resilient when facing setbacks, more creative in solving problems, and better at building relationships. They collaborate more effectively, are often more productive, and tend to persevere longer when challenges arise. Over time, those advantages compound.

This doesn't mean that happiness guarantees success. But it does suggest that wellbeing is not simply the reward waiting for us at the finish line. It may be part of what helps us get there.

As parents, that's worth thinking about.

If our ultimate goal is to help our children build successful and fulfilling lives, perhaps we should spend a little less energy obsessing over every grade and a little more energy nurturing the things that help them thrive: joy, connection, curiosity, optimism, and a sense of meaning.

And in fact, this message is relevant for us too. 

As a coach, I see this pattern all the time. How often do we postpone our own happiness until the next milestone? The promotion, the successful project, the growing business, the achievement we've been chasing.

What if we flipped that equation?

What if investing in our own wellbeing wasn't something we did after we became successful, but one of the ways we increased our chances of success in the first place?

Not instead of ambition.

Not instead of achievement.

But as a path toward both.